Between April 4 and April 7, 2025, global financial markets experienced a massive collapse. Japan’s stock index fell by 13%, Hong Kong’s by 11%, Vietnam’s by 8%, and both the US and China by 7%. Even established markets like Germany and the UK dropped by 5%, while India’s Sensex saw a 7% decline. The crash wasn’t just economic—it reflected a deeper crisis: the collapse of global trust, replaced by brute displays of power.
In the middle of this turbulence, US President Donald Trump launched yet another policy declaration under his “America First” agenda, titled The Empire Strikes Back. Though wrapped in economic language like “tariffs”, the message was clear: logic doesn’t matter, only orders do. Trust is being sidelined, power is taking over.
The Collapse of Global Trust
Trump’s earlier outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin had once been framed as a hopeful path toward ending the war in Ukraine. But those talks have now collapsed into sarcasm and deadlock, with no end to the war in sight. Similarly, the European Union is grappling with the consequences of Trump’s decision to decouple US security guarantees from the continent—a move that has rattled decades of military cooperation.
At the Raisina Dialogue held in March 2025, global leaders kept returning to one word: trust. Be it in supply chains, diplomacy, or security, the world is searching for reliability in an increasingly erratic geopolitical environment. And for the first time in a decade, Trump—not Xi Jinping—was described as the proverbial bull in the China shop.
Power vs. Order
Power in today’s world takes different forms. In democracies, it may come from public mandates. In authoritarian systems, it emerges from institutional control. In trade, power can bend rules quietly. In war, it redraws maps with blood.
Today’s world order, built after 1945 to avoid the disasters of two World Wars, is now under direct assault from three permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—Russia, China, and now, the United States. Each has undermined global norms in its own way: Russia in Ukraine, China with territorial aggression and economic coercion, and the US by tearing apart the system it helped create.
A World in Fragmentation
Trump’s actions mirror those of his global counterparts—if China and Russia could assert raw power to protect their interests, so can America, he seems to argue. But this approach risks pulling the world into a downward spiral, away from cooperation and into chaos.
In economic terms, the center of gravity is shifting. The dominance of the West is waning. While the US once held nearly 40% of the world’s GDP in 1960, that share is now just over 25%. In contrast, China’s share has risen to nearly 17%, and India’s is growing steadily. Indonesia is emerging as another major player. Any future international order must reflect this eastward shift in economic power.
Globalisation Still Binds the World
Despite the rise of nationalism and protectionism, the world remains interconnected. US brands like McDonald’s and social media platforms are global entities. India’s skilled workforce and yoga, South Korea’s electronics, Japan’s technology, Taiwan’s semiconductors, and Germany’s cars all serve global markets. Trade, energy, and technology cross national boundaries daily.
Even complex products like iPhones or BMWs are made from components sourced from dozens of countries. A single semiconductor chip may rely on design from the US and Israel, raw materials from China, manufacturing in Taiwan or South Korea, and testing in Vietnam or Malaysia. This interdependence makes it nearly impossible for any one country to dominate without consequences.
The Fall of the Dollar’s Influence?
Trump’s resistance to any alternative global financial system—especially one that could challenge the dollar—sounds increasingly outdated. As more countries seek to escape dependency on US policies, the urge to build alternative systems is growing. Ironically, by weaponising tariffs and threatening financial coercion, the US is encouraging others to create such alternatives.
If trade no longer trusts the US, it will simply look elsewhere.
The Breaking of the Rules-Based Order
The World Trade Organization, though aging and slow, provided an institutional framework for settling disputes and building trust. China exploited loopholes in this system, and now the US seems ready to abandon it. The consequences could be severe. If global institutions break down, even longstanding rules—like those protecting intellectual property—could be disregarded.
The idea of “China First” may become as normalised as “America First,” and the world could become a patchwork of power-based mini orders rather than one shared framework.
A New Order Must Avoid Old Mistakes
If a new global system is to emerge from this chaos, it must not repeat the failures of the League of Nations (1920), the Concert of Europe (1814), or even parts of the post-WWII UN framework. History shows that power without fairness cannot sustain peace.
The current moment calls for a more inclusive, fairer system—one that gives space to rising powers like India and Indonesia, reflects economic realities, and avoids the pitfalls of unilateralism. The longer the world allows raw power to replace cooperation, the more fragile our shared future becomes.
