As tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, sources close to Lebanon’s Hezbollah have warned that the group could enter the conflict under certain circumstances. While Hezbollah initially signaled restraint, insiders say that a direct U.S. military involvement or the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could push the group into what it considers an existential fight.
Hezbollah Draws Its Red Lines
Though a Hezbollah MP recently said that Iran can defend itself, and previous reports suggested the group would stay out of the fray, sources have clarified that these statements were misunderstood. A source close to Hezbollah told Middle East Eye that their non-engagement policy hinges on two red lines: direct American intervention or the targeted killing of Khamenei. These developments would drastically “shift the calculations” for Hezbollah.
These red lines are already under discussion in U.S. political circles. President Donald Trump has publicly stated that the U.S. knows the supreme leader’s whereabouts, though “won’t act for now.” Trump has also reportedly greenlit military options against Iran, though a final decision has not been announced.
The Existential Stakes for Iran’s Allies
For Iran and its regional allies, including Hezbollah, the current hostilities are seen as more than a tactical confrontation. A source described the conflict as an “existential battle” for the Axis of Resistance—a network of pro-Iran groups in the Middle East. Lebanese analyst Ali Rizk emphasized that while Khamenei’s death alone may not prompt Hezbollah’s entry, any perceived threat to the survival of Iran’s regime almost certainly would. He noted that Hezbollah’s ideological roots in Iran’s governance doctrine, Wilayat al-Faqih, make such involvement likely.
Should the U.S. escalate militarily, Rizk warns the situation could spiral into regime-change territory, thereby compelling Hezbollah to act. A second source added that, if needed, Hezbollah would join via a “support front,” much like its previous involvement in Gaza and Syria.
Past Conflicts and Current Capabilities
Hezbollah’s involvement in regional wars has come at a high cost. In its recent war with Israel, which started on October 8, 2023, and lasted nearly a year, the group suffered significant losses, including the death of its leader Hassan Nasrallah. Over 3,900 Lebanese were killed. While a ceasefire was reached in November, Israel continues to strike targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s suburbs.
Despite the losses, Hezbollah has restructured its forces with guidance from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The group retains an extensive arsenal, including long-range missiles and drones, much of which is stored in fortified underground bunkers. A source stated that Hezbollah’s current decision-making is tightly coordinated with the IRGC, whose priority is preserving Iran’s regime.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese government is urging Hezbollah to stay out of the conflict. Security meetings have taken place between President Joseph Aoun and the heads of Lebanese security agencies to manage the group’s role. However, Hezbollah’s political and military independence complicates such efforts, especially as its ties with the presidency remain strong.
The developments mark a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics. With Hezbollah poised to act if its red lines are crossed, any U.S. or Israeli move targeting Iran’s top leadership could widen the war across the region.
