Efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza have garnered support from the United States and much of the international community, yet a comprehensive agreement continues to evade both Hamas and Israel.
This week, Hamas tentatively accepted the broad framework of the latest ceasefire proposal but has called for amendments. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly contested elements of the plan, casting doubts on Israel’s commitment to what the US describes as an Israeli-backed initiative.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, currently on his 8th visit to the region since the onset of hostilities triggered by Hamas’ October 7 attack, emphasized on Wednesday in Qatar that negotiations are ongoing. Antony Blinken noted that Hamas has proposed “numerous” changes, acknowledging that while some amendments are feasible, others are not.
While specifics were not detailed by Antony Blinken, recent statements from Israeli and Hamas officials indicate persistent divisions on core issues that mediators have been attempting to reconcile for months.
1. Ending the Conflict:
Hamas insists on a permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza as prerequisites for releasing remaining hostages. President Joe Biden’s recent proposal included these conditions. However, PM Benjamin Netanyahu asserts Israel’s ongoing commitment to dismantling Hamas’ military and administrative capacities, ensuring prevention of future large-scale assaults akin to October 7.
The prospect of a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, where Hamas maintains significant leadership and military presence, raises concerns of potential rearmament. Israel has yet to present a post-war governance plan for Gaza and has rejected a US-backed proposal, which enjoys broad regional support, for its requirement of substantial progress towards establishing a Palestinian state.
Hamas spokesperson Jihad Taha affirmed to a Lebanese media outlet that their requested amendments aim to secure a lasting ceasefire and complete Israeli withdrawal. Additionally, Hamas seeks the release of hundreds of Palestinians held by Israel, including political figures and senior militants convicted of orchestrating fatal attacks on Israeli civilians. However, agreements on the list of detainees and their release locations (Gaza, West Bank, or exile) remain unresolved.
2. Progressing to the Second Phase of the Ceasefire Plan:
The initial ceasefire phase proposes a six-week period during which Hamas would release certain hostages (women, elderly, wounded) in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from populated areas. This phase also facilitates Palestinian civilian return and intensifies humanitarian aid.
However, transitioning to the second phase hinges on negotiating an agreement within this timeframe. President Biden outlined this phase to include the release of all remaining hostages, including male soldiers, and Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza, thus solidifying the temporary ceasefire into a permanent one.
Hamas apprehends potential Israeli resumption of hostilities post-return of vulnerable hostages. Furthermore, even if hostilities do not resume, Israel might introduce new demands during these negotiations, unacceptable to Hamas, potentially reigniting conflict.
Israel’s UN Ambassador, Gilad Erdan, affirmed Israel’s stance that negotiations must lead to Hamas relinquishing power in Gaza to prevent ongoing threats to Israel. Gilad Erdan expressed concern that prolonging negotiations under the initial ceasefire’s extension clause could permit Hamas to engage in protracted and fruitless talks.
Resolving Deep-Seated Mistrust:
Ceasefire efforts are further complicated by profound distrust between Israel and Hamas, having engaged in five wars and mutually committing to each other’s annihilation.
Additionally, PM Benjamin Netanyahu faces divergent pressures. Despite widespread protests, including from families of hostages demanding their return, far-right factions in PM Netanyahu’s fragile coalition reject the US-endorsed plan. These factions threaten to dismantle his government if he ends the conflict without obliterating Hamas.
These factions advocate for Gaza’s reoccupation, voluntary Palestinian emigration, and resettlement of Jewish communities, augmenting their leverage over Netanyahu, particularly after Benny Gantz, a centrist political adversary, resigned from Israel’s war cabinet.
While the prospect of either party abandoning negotiations appears unlikely, doing so would entail consequences. For Israel, abandoning negotiations could leave scores of hostages in Gaza. Conversely, Hamas’s reluctance prolongs Gaza’s humanitarian crisis and affords Israel extended time to neutralize militants.
Antony Blinken indicated that ongoing negotiations must progress earnestly. He noted, “At some juncture in negotiations, if one side continually revises demands, including those already accepted, it raises questions about their commitment.”
