The recent assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has heightened the risk of the United States being drawn into a conflict it has publicly stated it wishes to avoid. The incident comes two days after Israel attributed an attack that killed 12 people in the occupied Golan Heights to Lebanon’s Hezbollah. White House official John Kirby reiterated US support for Israel on Monday, while emphasizing Washington’s desire for regional de-escalation and a diplomatic solution.
Despite these calls for diplomacy, the potential for an all-out regional war looms large. The US has sent forces to the Middle East following the October 7 attack on Israel and the subsequent war on Gaza, signaling support for Tel Aviv. This move has been part of a broader strategy to prevent regional escalation, which has seen tense moments such as the killing of two Iranian generals at Tehran’s consulate in Damascus by Israel in April and a retaliatory attack by Iran on Israel.
US officials have worked behind the scenes to restrain Israel from escalating conflicts, particularly with Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, the assassination of Haniyeh and the killing of Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut within a few hours have severely undermined US efforts to mediate a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Brian Finucane, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group’s US Program, emphasized that regional de-escalation hinges on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza. Without one, the risk of a broader conflict involving US forces remains significant. He noted that a ceasefire is essential to calm tensions with groups such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah, as well as to reduce attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq.
The recent attacks complicate the prospects for a US-brokered ceasefire. Raed Jarrar, advocacy director at Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), criticized US policy, arguing that the US has not pushed strongly enough for de-escalation. He pointed out that the US could have enforced a ceasefire by halting the transfer of weapons to Israel, which he believes would have led to a cessation of hostilities months ago.
The assassination of Haniyeh has led to accusations from Hamas and Iran against Israel. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US was not aware of or involved in the killing, which occurred shortly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the US. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, suggested that regional perceptions might differ, especially given recent meetings between Mossad and CIA chiefs regarding ceasefire talks.
The incident raises questions about US leadership in the region and Israel’s apparent disregard for US objectives of achieving a ceasefire and avoiding a regional war. Finucane noted that Israel’s actions indicate it does not view the US as a regional leader, despite the US providing military support to deter Iran and its allies.
The US faces a complex situation as it approaches a presidential election. Analysts suggest that Netanyahu might be leveraging the current political uncertainty in the US to his advantage. A potential Kamala Harris presidency could see increased pressure on Netanyahu to end the war, altering the dynamics of US-Israel relations.
Since the October 7 attack, US support for Israel has affected its standing in the Middle East. DAWN’s Jarrar noted that the US has lost political capital in the region, a decline that has continued since the Iraq war. The US’s ability to influence events in the Middle East has been significantly diminished, further complicating efforts to achieve regional stability.
In summary, the killing of Ismail Haniyeh has escalated tensions in the Middle East, risking US involvement in a broader conflict. The situation highlights the challenges faced by the US in balancing support for Israel with efforts to achieve regional de-escalation and a ceasefire.
