Southeast Asia is at risk of deepening its dependence on fossil fuels as electricity demand continues to surge, according to a report by UK-based environmental think tank Ember. The report, released on Tuesday, warns that the 10 nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met the entire 3.6 percent increase in electricity demand in 2023 through fossil fuel sources, highlighting the region’s slow transition to clean energy.
Renewable energy’s share of power generation in ASEAN fell to 26 percent last year, down from 28 percent in 2022, with hydropower production taking a significant hit due to droughts and extreme weather events. As a result, carbon emissions in the region grew by 6.6 percent, adding an estimated 44 million tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere. Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines were identified as top coal polluters, while Singapore and Thailand saw most of their emissions from natural gas.
Ember’s report stresses that the region’s slow shift toward renewable energy means it is missing out on key benefits, such as the declining cost of solar and wind power, which are now cheaper than fossil fuels. The continued reliance on fossil fuels not only hampers climate targets but also limits Southeast Asia from leveraging emerging clean energy technologies.
“Continuing at this pace of transition risks ASEAN becoming more dependent on fossil fuels, missing opportunities presented by emerging clean energy technologies and economics, and failing to meet climate targets,” the report stated.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) echoed these concerns, stating that Southeast Asia would need to invest $190 billion—five times its current rate of investment—in clean energy by 2035 to achieve its climate goals. While clean energy sources are projected to meet one-third of the growth in electricity demand, the region is still on track to increase carbon emissions by 35 percent between now and 2050, the IEA warned.
Electricity demand in Southeast Asia is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4 percent, placing further strain on the region’s energy infrastructure. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized that clean energy technologies are not expanding fast enough, and the region’s heavy reliance on fossil fuel imports leaves countries vulnerable to future risks.
Courtney Weatherby, deputy director of the Stimson Center’s Southeast Asia program, acknowledged the potential of solar and wind energy but pointed out that institutional barriers remain. Many ASEAN nations are focused on modernizing and expanding their energy generation capacities, often leading to conflicting priorities between ensuring stable power supply and transitioning to renewables.
“Even rapid expansion will not lead to a full transition in a timely manner,” Weatherby said, adding that reliable power is essential for economic development and attracting investment.
