A new poll suggests that former US President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among Arab Americans, a key voting bloc, as the presidential race approaches its final stages. According to the Arab News/YouGov poll released on Monday, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 45 percent to 43 percent, highlighting the impact of the ongoing Gaza war on the Democratic Party’s support within the Arab-American community.
The poll is the latest indication that the Israel-Palestine conflict is eroding Democratic support among Arab Americans, a group with significant influence in key swing states such as Michigan. Donald Trump is also seen as more capable of resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict, leading Kamala Harris 39 percent to 33 percent on that issue. The two candidates are tied at 38 percent on who would be better for the Middle East overall.
Among the Arab-American community, the Israel-Palestine conflict emerged as the top concern, with 29 percent of respondents naming it their biggest issue. This was followed by 21 percent citing the economy and cost of living, and 13 percent choosing racism and discrimination.
Despite Donald Trump’s lead, he is viewed by a six-point margin as more supportive of Israel’s current government than Kamala Harris. This underscores a complex dynamic in which Donald Trump, though historically pro-Israel, has managed to appeal to some Arab-American voters concerned about the Gaza war and the broader Middle East.
The poll surveyed 500 Arab Americans and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.93 percent. It follows another poll from the Arab American Institute earlier this month, which showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris virtually tied at 42 percent and 41 percent, respectively. Kamala Harris’s support among Arab Americans is significantly lower than President Joe Biden’s in 2020, where he enjoyed an 18-point advantage in the same demographic.
Arab-American voters could play a pivotal role in the 2024 election, particularly in Michigan, home to the largest concentration of Arab Americans in North America. The state, which includes the Arab-majority city of Dearborn, was won by Joe Biden in 2020 by a margin of 150,000 votes, but Donald Trump carried it by only 11,000 votes in 2016.
In an appeal to Arab and Muslim voters, Donald Trump criticized Kamala Harris for campaigning with former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney. On his Truth Social platform, Donald Trump warned that Kamala Harris’s leadership could result in continued conflict in the Middle East and urged voters to support him for “peace.”
Despite his outreach to Muslims, Donald Trump has maintained a staunchly pro-Israel stance, positioning himself as the most pro-Israel president in US history.
