In the wake of the deadly Pahalgam terror attack, India has ramped up its diplomatic and strategic offensive against Pakistan, shifting focus to one of the region’s most sensitive pressure points — water. The country is not only curtailing the flow of river waters under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) but is also moving to suspend the international arbitration process concerning the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects. The escalation marks a dramatic pivot in India’s approach to water diplomacy, moving from cooperative engagement to calculated disengagement.
Chenab Diversion Raises Alarms
One of the clearest signals of this shift came with the abrupt closure of gates at the Baglihar Dam in Jammu and Kashmir, which has sharply reduced the flow of the Chenab River — a critical water source for Pakistan’s Punjab region. The Chenab is one of the three western rivers allocated to Pakistan under the IWT, and the sudden decrease in its flow has sparked fears of water scarcity and potential agricultural devastation across large swaths of Pakistani farmland this summer.
India to Request Pause in IWT Dispute Resolution
Further tightening the pressure, India is preparing to officially request the World Bank-appointed neutral expert, Michel Lino, to pause the ongoing adjudication process on the Kishanganga-Ratle dispute. Citing the changed geopolitical context following the April 22 attack in Pahalgam, India is set to communicate that it will no longer participate in the three-party engagement involving Pakistan and the World Bank. The move, expected to be delivered in writing, will also urge the World Bank to acknowledge the suspension of the process.
The Kishanganga-Ratle case, among the most complex disputes under the IWT framework, had reached an advanced stage of arbitration. Pakistan was due to submit its counter memorial by August 2025, and a major meeting involving expert presentations and site inspections was scheduled for later in the year. With India’s planned withdrawal, all remaining stages — including those slated for 2026 — now face indefinite uncertainty.
This evolving strategy blends legal, diplomatic, and environmental levers to signal a broader policy reset. With regional tensions high, India’s assertive posture suggests that traditional treaties and dispute frameworks may no longer be sacrosanct in the face of cross-border terrorism and national security concerns.
