Hamas has experienced a significant reduction in its forces, with about half its fighters eliminated over 8 months of conflict, and is now employing hit-and-run insurgent tactics to hinder Israeli efforts to control Gaza, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.
The ruling group in Gaza has been reduced to between 9,000 and 12,000 fighters, down from previous estimates of 20,000-25,000 before the conflict began, three senior U.S. officials familiar with battlefield developments reported. In contrast, Israel has reported the loss of nearly 300 troops in the Gaza campaign.
Hamas fighters are now avoiding sustained engagements with Israeli forces, particularly as they close in on the southern city of Rafah. Instead, they rely on ambushes and improvised explosive devices to strike targets, often behind enemy lines, one official stated.
Several Gaza residents, including Wissam Ibrahim, confirmed observing a shift in tactics. “In earlier months, Hamas fighters would engage Israeli troops immediately as they entered their territory,” Wissam Ibrahim told Reuters. “But now, they wait for them to deploy and then launch ambushes and attacks.”
The U.S. officials, requesting anonymity, said these tactics could prolong Hamas’ insurgency for months, aided by weapons smuggled into Gaza via tunnels and others repurposed from unexploded ordnance or captured from Israeli forces.
This extended timeframe aligns with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security adviser’s recent statement that the conflict could last until at least the end of 2024. A Hamas spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment on their battlefield strategy.
Hamas fighters have also been filming their ambushes of Israeli troops and posting the edited footage on Telegram and other social media platforms as part of a parallel propaganda drive.
Peter Lerner, an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson, acknowledged that Israel is adapting to Hamas’ new tactics. He noted that while it is unrealistic to eliminate every Hamas fighter or destroy every tunnel, “destroying Hamas as a governing authority is an achievable and attainable military objective.”
Leaders in Hiding:
PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his government are under pressure from Washington to agree to a ceasefire to end the conflict, which began on October 7 when Hamas fighters stormed into southern Israel, killing over 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli sources.
Israel’s subsequent ground-and-air campaign in Gaza has devastated the territory, resulting in over 36,000 deaths, according to Palestinian health authorities. The United Nations reports that over a million people face “catastrophic” levels of hunger.
Between 7,000 and 8,000 Hamas fighters are reportedly entrenched in Rafah, the group’s last significant stronghold, according to Israeli and U.S. officials. Top leaders Yahya Sinwar, his brother Mohammed, and second-in-command Mohammed Deif are believed to be hiding in tunnels with Israeli hostages.
Hamas has demonstrated an ability to withdraw quickly after attacks, regroup, and re-emerge in areas previously cleared by Israeli forces, a U.S. administration official said.
Lerner noted that Israel faces a long battle to overcome Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2006. “There is no quick fix after 17 years of them building their capabilities,” he added.
Hamas has constructed a 500 km (310 miles) network of tunnels, dubbed the Gaza metro by the Israeli military, roughly half the length of the New York subway system. These tunnels shelter Hamas leaders, command centers, and weapons stores.
Border Control and Smuggling:
The Israeli military announced last week that it had secured the entire Gaza-Egypt land border to prevent weapons smuggling. Approximately 20 tunnels used by Hamas to transport arms were discovered in the zone.
Egypt’s State Information Service did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Israel’s claims of arms smuggling. Egyptian officials have previously denied such trade, stating they destroyed the tunnel networks years ago.
Protracted Conflict:
The Gaza incursion marks Israel’s longest and fiercest conflict since the 1982 invasion of Lebanon to oust the Palestinian Liberation Organization.
PM Netanyahu has resisted domestic and international calls to outline a post-war plan for Gaza. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that the absence of such a plan could lead to lawlessness in the enclave.
An Arab official told Reuters that criminal gangs have already emerged in Gaza, seizing food deliveries and conducting armed robberies amid the power vacuum.
Washington and its Arab allies are working on a post-conflict plan for Gaza, aiming for a time-bound path to Palestinian statehood. The plan, part of a “grand bargain” envisioned by the U.S. to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, is to be presented to Israel.
A United Arab Emirates official involved in discussions said a Palestinian invitation was needed for countries to assist Gaza in an emergency operation, as well as an end to hostilities, full Israeli disengagement, and clarity on Gaza’s legal status.
For reconstruction to begin, a detailed roadmap towards a two-state solution is required, the UAE official added, along with serious reforms of the Palestinian Authority.
David Schenker, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, dismissed the idea of a complete IDF pullout from Gaza, indicating that Israel will maintain security control, including drone surveillance and operations against any re-emerging Hamas activities.
Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli military chief, proposed an Egyptian-led international coalition as an alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza. In a recent briefing, he emphasized the long-term nature of the conflict, describing it as a “religious, nationalistic, social, and military struggle” with no quick resolution.
