The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
The latest reading of 102.7 for the barometer index (represented by the blue line above) is both above the quarterly trade volume index (represented by the black line) and greater than the baseline value of 100 for the index, suggesting that trade will continue to grow steadily through the fourth quarter. However, the outlook is clouded by rising economic uncertainty, including possible shifts in trade policy.
All of the barometer’s component indices remain on or above trend except for the electronic components index (95.4), which has stabilized below trend. Indices representing export orders and raw materials indices are both on trend (100.5) while those representing air freight (102.9), automotive products (104.0) and container shipping (105.8) are firmly above trend. The container shipping index showed the biggest improvement over the last three months while the air freight index lost momentum. Export orders, usually the most predictive of the barometer’s components, remain very close to the baseline value of 100, suggesting steady trade growth in the near term.
According to the WTO’s most recent trade forecast of 10 October, trade volume growth for the whole of 2024 should come in at around 2.7% while growth in 2025 is expected to reach 3.0%. The latest forecast only showed modest changes at the global level compared to the previous forecast in April, although there were some notable revisions by region. Exports of Asian economies and imports of North American countries grew faster than expected in the first half of 2024. Meanwhile, European trade flows continued to decline on both the export and import sides, weighing down global trade growth. The next WTO trade forecast will be issued in April 2025.
The full Goods Trade Barometer is available here.
Further details on the methodology are contained in the technical note here.
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