WPC’s Short Range Public Discussion

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 22 2025 – 00Z Wed Sep 24 2025

…Clusters of thunderstorms will continue through early this week across
portions of the Midwest southwest through the central/southern Plains with
threats of flash flooding and severe weather…

…Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the
Southwest/California with isolated flash flooding possible…

…Above average temperatures are expected across much of the central and
eastern U.S., with near to below average temperatures across the West as
Summer draws to a close…

Unsettled weather is expected to continue across much of the Midwest and
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys west through the Mississippi Valley and into the
central/southern Plains through the early part of this week. An energetic
slow-moving upper-level trough and associated surface frontal/convective
boundaries will help to trigger additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, with a continuous flow of Gulf moisture helping to support
heavy rainfall chances in each of the coming days. Clustering of storms
along frontal/convective boundaries will bring a greater chance for
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. Into Sunday evening and night, the most
likely area to see heavy rainfall and scattered instances of flash
flooding is centered on the MO/KS/AR/OK border region, with a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) now in effect. More isolated instances
of flash flooding will also be possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley
and portions of the central/southern Plains. A Slight Risk of severe
weather (level 2/5), for mainly hail but with potential for high winds and
a few tornadoes, is delineated by the Storm Prediction Center a bit
farther southwest near the Red River (OK/TX border). Then, on Monday, the
most likely region to see isolated flash flooding will stretch from the
Ohio Valley west through the Mid-South into the Ozarks vicinity and
portions of the central/southern Plains. A broad Marginal Risk (level 1/4)
is in place for now, but additional areas and potentially higher levels of
threat are possible with more confidence in convective trends and
associated boundary locations. Severe weather could also be a threat, and
Slight Risks (level 2/5) are in place in the southern/central Plains for
primarily high wind and hail concerns. A more concentrated, greater threat
for scattered flash flooding is already expected across the Ozarks and
vicinity on Tuesday, with another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
2/4) in effect with the potential for future upgrades.

Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms can be expected across central/southern
Florida as well as along the western Gulf Coast. A return of monsoonal
moisture into the Desert Southwest ahead of an upper-level low over the
Pacific should bring increased thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday.
Locally heavy downpours are possible, and an isolated flash flood threat
will exist especially for the Colorado River Valley into central Arizona
Sunday, and expanding east into western New Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday
rain and thunderstorm chances will increase for parts of California, more
directly related to the upper low. To the north, a cold front moving
across the Northwest should continue to bring showers and thunderstorms
into into portions of the northern Great Basin and Rockies. Storm chances
will continue further southeastward into the central Rockies by Monday.

Much of the central and eastern U.S. will continue to see above to well
above average temperatures for the Fall equinox. Highs in the upper 80s to
mid-90s will be common across the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and
into the southern Plains/Texas once again on Monday and Tuesday, and a
handful of record highs are possible especially over Texas. Temperatures
in the 70s and 80s should stretch farther north across the Plains and
Midwest, while a warming trend will push through the east-central and
eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, much of the West will see
temperatures around or below average on Monday, with mainly 70s in the
Great Basin while the northern Rockies cools into the 60s for highs under
the primary shortwave developing the upper low. Cooler air pushes into the
central Rockies and High Plains by Tuesday, while the West Coast states
see a warming trend into the 80s and 90s, with a few low 100s possible in
the Desert Southwest.

Tate/Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php