In a significant development, formal talks between Iraqi and US officials are set to begin in the coming days, raising the prospect of the termination of the US military presence in Iraq. The announcement was made by US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday, marking a crucial step that could bring an end to the mission involving approximately 2,500 American soldiers stationed in Iraq.
The ongoing mission, in collaboration with troops from various European nations, has been in place since 2014, primarily focused on advising and assisting local forces to prevent the resurgence of the Islamic State (IS) militant group. The talks, officially titled the “US-Iraq Higher Military Commission,” aim to devise a transition timeline with the ultimate goal of establishing “an enduring bilateral security partnership” between Washington and Baghdad.
The US military presence in Iraq has faced mounting pressure, with the region experiencing spillover effects from the war on Gaza. Iraq, positioned as an ally to both Iran and the US, has witnessed a series of tit-for-tat attacks between US forces and Iranian-backed paramilitaries, intensifying the strain on the US position.
Attacks on US military bases in Iraq and Syria have surged since the commencement of the Israel-Palestine conflict, reaching a total of 60 in Iraq and over 90 in Syria. A notable shift in the US stance comes as sources suggest a realisation that the attacks are unlikely to cease, prompting a reevaluation of the status quo.
Iraq has become a focal point for a low-level US-Iran battle, as highlighted by Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Chatham House think-tank. Recent attacks on US forces triggered retaliatory strikes on facilities owned by Iran-backed militias, heightening tensions in the region.
Defence officials have clarified that the tit-for-tat attacks did not directly influence the decision to engage in negotiations for a US withdrawal. However, the talks are expected to be a prolonged process, spanning several months.
For Iran, a potential withdrawal of US troops from Iraq would signify a strategic victory. The war in Gaza has presented an opportune moment to push for the expulsion of the US, a long-pursued goal by Iran and its allies within the Iraqi government. Reports indicate increased coordination between Iraq’s Iran-backed forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, with Hezbollah’s senior official, Mohammad Hussein al-Kawtharani, overseeing operations in Baghdad.
Iran’s historical presence in Iraq, especially during the interim years between 2011 and 2014, has played a pivotal role in shaping the current dynamics. The Shia paramilitaries, funded and trained by Iran, evolved into the formidable Popular Mobilisation Units, boasting over 150,000 fighters today.
In the wake of a US drone strike in January that killed a senior Popular Mobilisation Units commander, Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani publicly aligned himself with calls for a US exit. Sudani enjoys support from the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Tehran-backed Shia political parties with ties to many of Iraq’s paramilitaries.
