Recent data reveals a significant surge in trade between China and Mexico, highlighting Mexico’s increasing role as a key manufacturing hub amid ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China. This shift is seen as a direct result of companies relocating their production from China to Mexico to leverage the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and bypass tariffs imposed during the U.S.-China trade war.
Jordan Dewart, president of cross-border logistics specialist Redwood Mexico, explained, “We are seeing more Chinese companies moving their production facilities from China to Mexico,” using Chinese third-party logistics services for warehousing and shipping. These facilities import raw materials from China, manufacture products in Mexico, and then export them to the U.S., benefiting from Mexico’s trade agreements.
This strategy, known as nearshoring, allows companies to change a product’s “economic nationality,” whereby goods produced with Chinese components in Mexico are labeled “Made in Mexico,” avoiding many of the tariffs levied on Chinese imports. Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, emphasized that substantial transformation in the manufacturing process is required for goods to qualify as originating from Mexico.
European companies are also embracing this shift. Simon Cohen, founder and CEO of Henco Logistics, noted the growing number of European manufacturers relocating from China to Mexico to take advantage of U.S. market access. This trend, supported by the USMCA and the “China Plus One” strategy, has driven a sharp increase in trade between China and Mexico.
Data from freight analytics firm Xeneta shows a 26.2% rise in container trade between China and Mexico from January to July 2024, following a 33% increase in 2023. The months of May and June recorded the highest volume of containers entering Mexico from China. VesselBot, which tracks container flows, also reported record-high volumes of Mexican exports to the U.S. during the same period.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, described the growing trade between China and Mexico as a potential “back door into the U.S.,” a route that has gained popularity in the last 18 months. This nearshoring trend is supported by Mexico’s numerous free trade agreements, including the USMCA and trade pacts with the European Union, Japan, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, making the country an attractive manufacturing destination.
The growing trade between China, Mexico, and the U.S. is happening against a backdrop of political uncertainty. Former President Donald Trump and other political figures have raised concerns about Mexican manufacturing, particularly the involvement of Chinese firms. Trump, who accelerated U.S.-China trade tensions during his presidency, has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on vehicles manufactured in Mexico, highlighting concerns about China’s influence in the region.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has maintained many of Trump’s trade policies, while also introducing new measures to support U.S. industries, particularly semiconductors and electric vehicle technologies. John Piatek, vice president at GEP Worldwide, said imports from Mexico to the U.S. have increased by over 20% annually from 2020 to mid-2024, contrasting with a decline in imports directly from China.
The surge in trade has led to a rise in cross-border trucking, particularly through Laredo, Texas, which has become a key hub for Mexican exports. Companies such as Tesla, BMW, Ford, and BYD have announced major investments in Mexico’s automotive sector, further boosting the country’s role in global supply chains. Mexico reported $36 billion in foreign direct investment in 2023, a 27% increase over the previous year, and the 2024 mid-year figure has already reached $31 billion.
However, Mexico’s growing importance in U.S. trade has not gone unnoticed. Trump has voiced concerns that China is using Mexico as a platform for accessing the U.S. market, accusing the Biden administration of allowing this shift to continue. During a recent debate, Trump claimed that Chinese-owned auto plants in Mexico were building cars for export to the U.S. Tesla CEO Elon Musk also expressed uncertainty about Mexico’s role in future production due to potential tariffs, announcing a pause on plans for a gigafactory in Monterrey, Mexico.
Despite these concerns, Mexico’s role in global supply chains continues to grow. Logistics companies such as DHL, Maersk, and Uber Freight are expanding their operations to capitalize on the increased demand for cross-border services. Maersk recently opened a new facility in Tijuana, Mexico, while Uber Freight has added 1.5 million square feet of warehouse space across Mexico, including locations in Monterrey and Mexico City.
The increasing trade between China, Mexico, and the U.S. has raised questions about the future of the USMCA. The trade deal, which replaced NAFTA, includes a provision for review after six years, with the next evaluation scheduled for July 2026. Evelyn Suarez, founder of the Suarez Firm, suggested that the growing use of Mexico by Chinese manufacturers could become a topic of discussion during the review.
As global trade continues to evolve, Mexico’s position as a key player in North American supply chains is expected to strengthen. According to logistics professionals, Mexico’s proximity to the U.S. and its ability to provide lower-cost manufacturing alternatives will continue to make it an attractive location for companies looking to mitigate the impact of tariffs and safeguard their supply chains.
