Donald Trump’s criminal conviction for illegally covering up a hush money payment to a porn star will not prevent the Republican candidate from pursuing his campaign to retake the White House, even if he were sentenced to prison before the November 5 election.
Eligibility unaffected by conviction
The U.S. Constitution requires that presidents be at least 35 years old, U.S. citizens, and have lived in the country for 14 years. Neither a criminal conviction nor a prison sentence affects Donald Trump’s eligibility or ability to become president. Theoretically, he could be sworn in from jail or prison if he were to unseat Democratic President Joe Biden in the upcoming election.
Historical precedents
Jailhouse presidential campaigns are not unprecedented in U.S. history. Socialist Eugene Debs unsuccessfully ran for president from prison in the 1920 election, though unlike Donald Trump, he was not a serious contender.
Potential prison sentence
It is not yet known what sentence, if any, the judge will impose on Donald Trump. As a first-time offender for a nonviolent crime, it is rare for individuals with no criminal history who are convicted only of falsification of business records to be sentenced to prison in New York. More common punishments include fines or probation.
The maximum sentence for Donald Trump’s crime of falsifying business records is 1-1/3 to four years in prison, but defendants typically receive a year or less in cases involving prison time. If punished beyond a fine, Donald Trump could be placed under home confinement or subjected to a curfew rather than imprisonment.
Given his status as a former president with a lifetime Secret Service detail, the logistics of keeping him safe behind bars could be complicated. Trump could also be released on bail while appealing his conviction.
Impact on the election
While the hush money case is widely seen as the least consequential of the four criminal prosecutions Trump faces, the guilty verdict could still have implications for the election. Opinion polls indicate that a guilty verdict could cost him votes in an election potentially decided by just tens of thousands of votes in key battleground states.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters in April revealed that one in four Republicans would not vote for Donald Trump if he were found guilty in a criminal trial. In the same survey, 60% of independents stated they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a crime.
