CAIRO — As Israeli troops push farther south in Gaza, officials in Jerusalem are signaling what could be a central, and politically perilous, aim of the war’s next phase: taking control of the border crossing with Egypt.
Since December, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently maintained that the elimination of Hamas is not feasible without Israel taking control over the southern border area of Gaza, including the Rafah crossing with Egypt. This crossing is crucial for the movement of people and the delivery of humanitarian aid into the blockaded territory.
In late December, Netanyahu stated, “The Philadelphi Corridor — or, more accurately, the southern terminus [of Gaza] — needs to be under our control. It must be closed off,” highlighting a buffer zone along the border. He added, “It’s evident that no alternative solution would guarantee the disarmament we aim for.”
Prior to October 7, the Rafah crossing, situated along the Philadelphi Corridor—a barren strip roughly nine miles in length and several hundred yards across, extending from Gaza’s southern tip to the Mediterranean Sea—was jointly administered by Egyptian and Hamas officials on their respective sides. Since withdrawing its forces from the Gaza Strip in 2005, Israel has not had any personnel stationed along this border segment.
Regaining Israeli dominion over this territory is essential for establishing “a new strategic dynamic in Gaza,” one in which Hamas lacks the capability to launch future attacks against Israel, as explained by Michael Milshtein, a distinguished fellow at Reichman University and former director of Palestinian affairs for Israeli military intelligence.
The conflict in Gaza, initiated by Israel in response to militants killing 1,200 individuals and taking over 250 hostages on October 7, has resulted in the extensive destruction of the northern region and the death of over 26,000 Palestinians, with a significant number of the casualties being women and children, as reported by the Gaza Health Ministry.
The military operation has inflicted harm on Hamas, but the organization is still thought to have thousands of combatants under its command. Its senior leadership remains elusive, and according to Israeli officials, a significant portion of its tunnel infrastructure, particularly in the southern region, remains undamaged.
“You must assume control over this corridor, including the Rafah border crossing,” Milshtein emphasized. “If not, in the event of a ceasefire or a broader resolution in Gaza, with the entire border remaining open, Hamas could rapidly acquire everything it requires from a military standpoint and reestablish itself.”
However, the prospect of Israeli troops reoccupying the border area has raised concerns in Cairo. Egyptian officials have warned in recent weeks that such an action could jeopardize the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty, a historic agreement that paved the way for five decades of peaceful coexistence and collaboration between the two former adversaries.
Egypt has unequivocally stated that it views the border situation as a critical issue. Diaa Rashwan, the head of the State Information Service, issued a statement last week emphasizing, “It must be strictly emphasized that any Israeli move in this direction will lead to a serious threat to Egyptian-Israeli relations.” In recent weeks, Egyptian and Israeli officials, as well as commentators, have engaged in exchanges of accusations regarding the smuggling of weapons to Hamas in Gaza. These developments have exposed growing tensions in a relationship that has historically provided stability in a volatile region.
“A deficiency in trust or mutual comprehension exists on both sides, which is an unfamiliar situation,” remarked Mohamed Anwar Sadat, a former member of Egypt’s parliament and the nephew of Anwar Sadat, the Egyptian president who signed the 1979 treaty and was subsequently assassinated. “Honestly, we feel like we’ve regressed to a point resembling our relationship with Israel in the 1970s,” he added.
Egypt has consistently supported the idea of Palestinian self-determination and has played a crucial role as a mediator between Israel and Palestinian authorities. While relations between Israel and Egypt were not characterized by warmth, the two nations had established a strong security collaboration in recent times and were working towards strengthening economic and energy connections.
Since President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi assumed leadership following a military coup in 2013, Egypt has taken significant measures to combat the smuggling of weapons and goods through hundreds of tunnels to and from Gaza. Additionally, the government has relocated tens of thousands of residents from northern Sinai and demolished structures near the border, establishing a militarized buffer zone extending approximately three miles into the area.
Concurrently, Israel permitted Egypt to deploy military forces to Sinai to combat an Islamist insurgency, going beyond the scope of what was allowed under the 1979 treaty.
However, the assertion from Israel that Egypt has not effectively curtailed smuggling has struck a sensitive chord among Egyptian officials who prioritize security. From Cairo’s viewpoint, President Sisi has already assumed considerable political risk by reinforcing Israel’s blockade of Gaza, even as over a million displaced Palestinians seek refuge in Rafah.
“Egypt maintains full control over its borders,” emphasized Foreign Ministry spokesman Ahmed Abu Zeid during a recent appearance on a talk show.
Rashwan, the head of state information, provided an extensive defense of Egypt’s efforts to combat smuggling, highlighting measures such as the construction of a 20-foot-deep concrete wall along the border in recent years. He strongly rejected Israel’s suggestions that militants are misusing humanitarian deliveries for their own purposes.
Tensions between the two nations had already escalated due to calls by right-wing Israeli lawmakers for the relocation of Gazans to Sinai, a deeply concerning scenario for Egypt. Additionally, the conflict in Gaza has further strained Egypt’s struggling economy, with reduced tourism revenue and a decline in income from shipping through the Suez Canal, partly due to Houthi militants in Yemen targeting merchant vessels in the Red Sea to protest the war.
Mirette Mabrouk, the director of the Egypt studies program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, remarked, “The pressure currently placed on Egypt is truly exceptional. Egypt’s security is closely linked to Israel’s security, so when actions continue to destabilize Egypt or proceed in a manner likely to destabilize it, it is not in Israel’s best interest.”
Farag, the former general, mentioned that Egypt was exploring various potential responses in the event that Israeli forces take control of the border region but chose not to disclose further details.
During a news conference on Saturday, Netanyahu stated that the relationship with Egypt remains “continuing and usual” despite earlier reports suggesting that Cairo had contemplated recalling its ambassador from Tel Aviv.
According to a report in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth this week, Israel’s military would only engage in a ground operation along the Philadelphi Corridor if it obtains approval from Egyptian officials.
Milshtein emphasized that maintaining a strong relationship with Cairo is of utmost importance from the perspective of Israel.
