India’s diplomatic stance on the Russia-Ukraine war has been characterized by strategic neutrality, drawing attention from global capitals. Since the war began two years ago, India has refrained from taking a clear side, as seen when it abstained from voting on a draft resolution in the United Nations Security Council on February 25, 2022. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Ukraine, following his high-profile trip to Moscow, underscores India’s commitment to maintaining this balanced approach. Notably, this marks the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Ukraine since it gained independence from the Soviet Union.
India’s balancing act has raised questions in the European Union and the United States about the motivations behind this stance. Despite domestic debates about India’s role in global peace, it is clear that the Western world’s perception matters. Decoupling from the West is not a feasible option for India, especially given the country’s increasing engagement with EU nations since 2014. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to strengthen strategic and economic ties with Europe have been evident, aiming to secure crucial partnerships.
India’s strategic neutrality also signals its intention to keep its defence options open. The decline in Russian arms exports to India, from 76% in 2009-2013 to 36% in 2019-2024, indicates India’s shift towards diversifying its defence suppliers. While Russia remains a significant arms partner, India is exploring alternatives, with France emerging as a key player through the sale of Rafael jets and collaboration on defence infrastructure projects. Additionally, India’s growing defence ties with countries like South Korea, South Africa, and Poland highlight its intent to diversify. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Poland before Ukraine further emphasizes this strategic outreach.
India’s approach is not only about expanding its defence portfolio but also about positioning itself as a credible global player. By maintaining a stance of strategic neutrality, India avoids aligning too closely with the US, which has been reluctant to share advanced defence technology. Instead, India is building self-interest-driven alliances in Europe and Asia, mindful of the strategic implications of China’s presence in the region. India’s reputation as a potential mediator is being recognized, with Ukrainian officials acknowledging its influence over Russia.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine comes at a crucial juncture. While India is unlikely to broker immediate peace between Moscow and Kyiv, even minor reductions in hostilities could enhance India’s diplomatic standing. As the world watches the evolving geopolitical landscape, India’s emphasis on realism and its national interests positions it as a significant player in global diplomacy. With the next US presidential election on the horizon, India has a window of opportunity to further its strategic goals, prioritizing pragmatism over idealistic rhetoric.
