China’s population has witnessed a significant decline for the third year in a row in 2024, as the country grapples with an ongoing demographic crisis. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that China’s population fell by 1.39 million over the past year, bringing the total population to 1.408 billion. This decline is attributed to the continuing trend of deaths surpassing births, a situation that has been escalating for years.
The country’s population decline is not a new phenomenon but has been steadily unfolding since the 1980s. However, 2022 marked a turning point when, for the first time since 1961, deaths outpaced births. This period also coincided with the infamous Great Leap Forward plan, which resulted in a devastating famine causing the deaths of an estimated 20 million people. The current population decline, however, is not the result of a single event but a long-term demographic shift, with the NBS highlighting the increasing adverse effects of external factors, insufficient domestic demand, and ongoing economic difficulties as major contributors.
Despite efforts by Beijing to reverse the falling birthrate, the strategies implemented have had little success in changing the overall downward trend. The Chinese government has attempted to address the issue through a combination of policies, from offering financial incentives to couples, promoting marriage, and discouraging divorce, to trying to curb abortion. The cultural preference for male children, a legacy of the former one-child policy, has further contributed to the skewed gender ratio in the population.
In an attempt to address the nation’s aging population, the Chinese government has also made several changes to its social policies. In 2016, the government officially ended the one-child policy, which had been in place for decades to control population growth. While families are now permitted to have three children, economic factors such as high living costs in urban areas, a slowing economy, and rising youth unemployment have made raising children a less viable option for many young Chinese citizens.
The issue of population decline also led to a brief increase in marriages in 2023, rising by 12.4% compared to the previous year, which was partially attributed to the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. This resulted in a small uptick in births in the first half of 2024. Additionally, the Year of the Dragon, a time traditionally associated with a baby boom in East Asia, brought temporary hope to reversing the downward trend. However, experts are cautious and maintain that the overall trend continues to be negative.
China’s economy, which grew by 5% in 2024, was able to meet government growth expectations but still faces future challenges as the GDP is projected to slow down in the years ahead. With the country’s aging population and shrinking workforce, economic growth could face long-term constraints. To combat the demographic decline, Beijing has taken further steps, including raising the retirement age to ensure that people remain in the workforce longer, particularly in managerial and technical roles. The mandatory retirement age for men will gradually rise from 60 to 63, while women in similar positions will see the retirement age increase from 55 to 58.
China’s demographic issues are not unique to the country. Other East Asian nations, including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, are also witnessing similar challenges, primarily due to restrictive immigration policies, cultural preferences for smaller families, and aging populations. These countries, including China, also face the challenge of limited access to fertility treatments, such as in vitro fertilization (IVF), particularly for unmarried women.
As China continues to face these demographic hurdles, the government is under increasing pressure to find solutions that will mitigate the challenges posed by its shrinking population. The combination of economic, social, and cultural factors makes it a complex issue that requires long-term strategies and a careful balancing act between policy, economy, and society. The continued decline in China’s population underscores the growing need for a comprehensive and sustainable approach to addressing the country’s demographic crisis.
