Newswise — The United States and Israeli war with Iran is complicated and multilateral, driven by varied motives, with the primary actors desiring different outcomes. Centered on the Strait of Hormuz and on Lebanon, the conflict extends across the region and its effects have global implications.
“These factors will hinder any ceasefire and cast doubt on peace negotiations for the foreseeable future,” said Virginia Tech political scientist Robert Hodges. “As we’ve witnessed over the past month, the goals of the conflict and the conditions for a ceasefire and peace agreement keep shifting.”
Hodges answered questions about the factors affecting peace negotiations.
Do the U.S. and Israel have the same objectives in the conflict with Iran?
“The declared objectives — eliminating Iran’s nuclear weapons program, diminishing its ballistic missile capabilities, and stopping support for Hezbollah and the Houthis — were meant to eliminate Iranian backed threats to Israel. This would weaken Iran’s regional power aspirations and allow increased security for U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait. Making Iran a lessor political and military threat boosts the power positions of Israel and Saudi Arabia.”
How have the U.S. actions against Iran changed Israel’s actions in the region?
“Israel began an offensive in Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah. The attacks on Beirut are coercion to force the Lebanese government and citizens to disavow Hezbollah and eliminate their internal support. The U.S. attacks on Iran and the continued stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz maintain Iran’s focus away from Lebanon, giving Israel an advantage over Hezbollah.”
Why have negotiations not been successful so far?
“Negotiations need a clear agenda to start. All parties involved must have achievable goals and know the other side is willing to discuss the issues in earnest. So far, Iran’s demands include the cessation of hostilities by Israel against Lebanon. Since Israel was not a part of the negotiations, the talks could not proceed. Iran has also demanded reparations for damages and weapons used in the conflict. This demand is usually one made by the victors in war, so without Iran winning and forcing a U.S. surrender, this is a non-starter. On the other side, the multiple demands from the U.S. include the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program. The ‘absolute’ end goal demands from the U.S. minimizes negotiating space for Iran, which hinders talks. Mediation via Pakistan often demands discretion and secrecy, but the both the U.S. and Iran have been conducting active ‘public diplomacy’ campaigns, straining the potential success of future talks.”
What makes the Strait of Hormuz so crucial?
“It’s a major shipping channel for oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and other resource goods in the world. For Iran, restricting shipping places them in control of the global economy for these specific goods. This could force the international community to pressure the U.S. to pull back from its operations in the region. For the U.S., restricting Iranian flagged vessels from exiting the strait places a strain on the Iranian economy, which could lead to an uprising by the Iranian people if inflation begins to significantly impact their lives. The loss of economic abilities also limits Iranian capabilities to build or purchase weapons.”
What will a successful negotiation to end the conflict require?
“First, both sides need to set reasonable demands. The U.S. needs for Israel to agree to end its military campaign in Lebanon, which requires a successful negotiation between Israel and Lebanon to occur first. Then, the U.S. and Iran can focus on their specific demands without involvement by other nations. A cessation of hostilities is unlikely until the conflict is truly just between the U.S. and Iran.”
About Hodges
Political science Professor Robert Hodges directs the Virginia Tech Diplomacy Lab.
Schedule an interview
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