The recent deadly landslides in Kerala’s Wayanad district have been attributed to a significant increase in rainfall intensity, with climate change contributing to a 10% rise in rainfall, according to a rapid attribution study conducted by an international team of scientists. The study, involving researchers from India, Sweden, the US, and the UK, highlights the growing impact of climate change on extreme weather events.
The study, conducted by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, used advanced climate models to assess rainfall patterns in the region. The results indicate that the intensity of rainfall in Wayanad has increased by 10% due to human-caused climate change. This is in line with the broader scientific understanding that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier downpours. The models also project a further 4% increase in rainfall intensity if global temperatures rise by an additional two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Despite the significant findings, the scientists noted a “high level of uncertainty” due to the small and complex study area. They emphasized that while the exact relationship between land use changes and landslide risk remains unclear, the loss of forest cover and activities like quarrying have likely exacerbated the region’s vulnerability to landslides.
The Wayanad district, known for its ecological fragility, has seen a marked reduction in forest cover, with a 62% decrease between 1950 and 2018. This deforestation, combined with increased plantation cover and ongoing mining activities, has made the region more susceptible to landslides during intense rainfall events.
Experts, including S Abhilash from Cochin University of Science and Technology, have pointed out that the warming of the Arabian Sea contributes to the formation of deep cloud systems, leading to extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala. This phenomenon, coupled with the region’s steep terrain, significantly increases the risk of landslides.
The study underscores the urgent need to address climate change and its impacts, as well as the importance of sustainable land management practices to mitigate the risks associated with extreme weather events.
