1 Can we keep 1.5 alive?
“Keep 1.5 alive” has been the UN’s rallying cry for a number of years, a reference to the goal of ensuring that average global temperatures don’t soar beyond 1.5 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels. The scientific consensus is that a lack of action would have catastrophic consequences, not least for the so-called “frontline States”, such as developing island nations which could disappear under the ocean, as sea levels rise.
A man fishes sitting on sandbags which protect the Pacific Ocean island nation Tuvalu against sea erosion.
At COP30, the UN climate conference scheduled to take place between 10 and 21 November 2025, mitigation (in other words, actions and policies designed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to rising temperatures) is likely to a key focus.
The nations of the world will arrive with upgraded, more ambitious commitments to lowering greenhouse gases. This is both a recognition that existing pledges are wholly inadequate, in terms of getting temperatures down, and part of the deal that Member States signed up to in 2015 at the Paris COP (nations are expected to “ratchet up” their commitments every five years. The last time this happened was at the 2021 Glasgow COP, delayed by one year because of the COVID-19 pandemic).
2 Protecting nature
Holding COP30 in the Amazonian rainforest region of Brazil is of symbolic importance. It harks back to the early days of international attempts to protect the environment: the pivotal “Earth Summit”, which led to the establishment of three environmental treaties on climate change, biodiversity, and desertification, took place in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro in 1992.
A parrot stands on a tree branch in Maharashtra, India.
The location also highlights the role that nature has to play in the climate crisis. The rainforest is a massive “carbon sink”, a system that sucks up and stores CO2, a greenhouse gas, and prevents it from entering the atmosphere, where it contributes to warming.
Unfortunately, rainforests and other “nature-based solutions” face threats from human development, such as illegal logging which has devastated huge swathes of the region. The UN will continue efforts begun in 2024 to improve the protection of the rainforest and other ecosystems, at biodiversity talks due to be resumed in Rome in February.
3 Who’s going to pay for all this?
Finance has long been a thorny issue in international climate negotiations. Developing countries argue that wealthy nations should contribute far more towards projects and initiatives that will enable them to move away from fossil fuels, and power their economies on clean energy sources. The pushback from the rich countries is that fast-growing economies such as China, which is now the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, should also pay their share.
Activists protest against fossil fuels at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, a breakthrough of sorts was made, with the adoption of an agreement to triple the amount of climate finance paid to developing countries, to $300 billion per year, by 2035. The deal is a definite step forward, but the final sum is far less than the $1.3 trillion that climate experts say these countries need in order to adapt to the crisis.
Expect more progress to be made on financing in 2025, at a summit in Spain at the end of June. The Financing for Development conferences only take place once every 10 years, and next year’s edition is being billed as an opportunity to make radical changes to the international financial architecture. Environmental and climate concerns will be raised, and potential solutions such as green taxation, carbon pricing and subsidies will all be on the table.
4 Laying down the law
When the attention of the International Court of Justice turned to climate change in December, it was hailed as a landmark moment with regards to States’ legal obligations under international law.
Vanuatu often experiences destructive extreme weather, such as typhoons, which are being exacerbated by climate change.
Vanuatu, a Pacific island state particularly vulnerable to the crisis, asked the court for an advisory position, in order to clarify the obligations of States with regard to climate change, and inform any future judicial proceedings.
Over a two-week period, 96 countries and 11 regional organizations took part in public hearings before the Court, including Vanuatu and a group of other Pacific islands States, and major economies including China and the USA.
The ICJ will deliberate for several months before delivering its advisory opinion on the subject. Although this opinion will be non-binding, it is expected to guide future international climate law.
5 Plastic pollution
UN-convened talks on getting to grips with the global epidemic of plastic pollution edged closer to a deal during negotiations in Busan, South Korea.
Some key advances were made during the November 2024 talks – the fifth round of negotiations following the 2022 UN Environment Assembly resolution calling for an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment.
Agreement on three pivotal areas needs to be ironed: plastic products, including the issue of chemicals; sustainable production and consumption; and financing.
Plastic bottles are collected for recycling in India.
Member States are now charged with finding political solutions to their differences before the resumed session begins, and with landing a final deal that addresses the full lifecycle of plastics and delivers on the growing global momentum to end plastic pollution.
“It is clear that the world still wants and demands an end to plastic pollution,” said UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Executive Director Inger Andersen. “We need to ensure we craft an instrument that hits the problem hard instead of punching below its potential weight. I call on all Member States to lean in.”
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