The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has secured a historic victory in Haryana, winning a third consecutive term with a 48-seat triumph that defied exit poll predictions. Meanwhile, in Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance led by Farooq Abdullah clinched a majority with 48 seats out of the 90 in the union territory’s first Assembly elections in a decade. These results mark significant political shifts in both regions, with the BJP strengthening its foothold in Haryana and the NC-Congress alliance emerging as the dominant force in Jammu and Kashmir.
In Haryana, the BJP’s performance surpassed its 2014 breakthrough, when the party first came to power on its own. The results saw the BJP securing 48 seats, just one more than its tally from 2014, while the Congress managed to win 37 seats. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) secured only two seats, and independent candidates won three seats. The BJP’s success in Haryana is attributed to its ability to counter anti-incumbency and manage localised electoral factors, with the Congress failing to present a unified state leadership. Rajdeep Sardesai, India Today’s Consulting Editor, pointed out that the Hooda factor may have contributed to non-Jat Other Backward Class (OBC) voters consolidating behind the BJP, while the Dalit vote remained divided.
Sardesai also noted that the margins in Haryana were very narrow, with the BJP managing to win key constituencies through effective last-mile campaigning. The Congress, meanwhile, was seen as overconfident and paid the price for its inability to galvanize a cohesive leadership to counter the BJP’s momentum.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the NC-Congress alliance won a combined total of 48 seats, while the BJP secured 29 seats, maintaining its stronghold in Jammu. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by Mehbooba Mufti, managed to win three seats, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) opened its tally with one seat. The NC remains the leading party in the Kashmir Valley, with the BJP dominating the Jammu region. Sardesai highlighted how the political landscape in Jammu and Kashmir is increasingly divided along regional lines, with smaller parties being squeezed out in the face of the two dominant coalitions.
These election outcomes also underscore the enduring strength of the Modi factor, as the BJP continues to counter anti-incumbency and maintain its electoral dominance. Looking ahead to the 2024 general elections, Sardesai suggested that the upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand could be decisive in determining which party will claim ultimate bragging rights. For the Congress, these results signal the need for Rahul Gandhi to reenergize his party and unify its leadership to effectively challenge the BJP in future contests.
