Jessica Chong realized that many of her closest friends would not be attending the recent party she organized to celebrate her and her partner’s birthdays in Auckland. In recent months, most of them had moved overseas.
Chong’s experience reflects a growing trend in New Zealand, where an increasing number of people are leaving the country due to rising living costs, a scarcity of jobs, and what many describe as a generally “grim” atmosphere.
“It feels a bit empty,” said Chong, 28, who is also planning to move to London. “It will be kind of funny: we’ll move there and be hanging out with people we already know, which is not the point, but will be kind of nice.”
According to provisional figures from Statistics New Zealand, 131,200 people left the country in the year leading up to June 2024, the highest number on record. Of those, 80,200 were New Zealand citizens, nearly double the annual departures before the COVID-19 pandemic. Almost 40 percent of those leaving were between the ages of 18 and 30.
With outward migration reaching unprecedented levels, experts warn that many of those who have left may not return.
“It’s off the charts. We haven’t seen this number of New Zealanders leaving before,” Brad Olsen, principal economist at Wellington-based consultancy firm Infometrics, told Al Jazeera.
New Zealand, one of the world’s most isolated and least populous countries, has a long history of citizens temporarily moving abroad for “overseas experiences,” often to the United Kingdom or Australia. Currently, while 5.2 million people live in New Zealand, an estimated one million citizens reside abroad.
When the pandemic hit, more than 50,000 New Zealanders rushed back home, where strict lockdowns and border controls kept the country largely COVID-free for over a year, earning international praise. However, New Zealand’s economic recovery has since struggled.
In June, the economy returned to growth after two recessions in 18 months, recording a modest 0.2 percent quarterly expansion. Unemployment rose to 4.6 percent in the June quarter, up from 3.6 percent during the same period in 2023. Although wage growth, at 4.1 percent, has outpaced inflation, it has slowed from 4.3 percent the previous year.
For many young New Zealanders, homeownership feels increasingly unattainable. House prices, which have recently started rising again after a period of decline, remain roughly seven times higher than the average income, according to Infometrics.
Inflation, which peaked at 7.3 percent in 2022, remains above the central bank’s target at 3.3 percent, prompting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to implement successive hikes in the benchmark interest rate, which peaked at 5.5 percent.
“It’s the right medicine, but it makes the economic climate feel very difficult for people,” Olsen said.
Dissatisfaction with the economic situation was a significant factor in the October election, where voters replaced the progressive Labour-led government with a cost-cutting coalition led by the National Party, headed by former airline executive Christopher Luxon.
Following the Reserve Bank’s announcement of a 0.25 percent interest rate cut, Finance Minister Nicola Willis expressed optimism that the economy was “back on track” after years of rising prices.
“New Zealand has been suffering an acute cost-of-living crisis since mid-2021, with weekly food budgets stretched thin, high mortgage repayments, and low confidence in our homes, offices, and boardrooms,” Willis said.
However, for many, signs of an economic turnaround have come too late. In 2023 alone, 44,500 New Zealanders moved to Australia, according to Statistics New Zealand.
The scale of the outflow has raised concerns among economists like Olsen, who believe it reflects a more permanent shift rather than the traditional “overseas experience.”
“It highlights that wider moves are afoot. Part of that is the perception that the grass is greener across the ditch,” Olsen said, referring to Australia.
Michaela Young, 27, is among those who have relocated to Australia. After earning a master’s degree in biomedicine from Victoria University of Wellington, she struggled to find jobs in New Zealand that paid enough to meet her needs.
“The cost of living was a huge issue, and it was becoming more rampant,” Young told Al Jazeera, citing the rising prices of basic goods. She was particularly struck when she saw a bag of marshmallows priced at 8 New Zealand dollars ($4.99).
In March, Young moved to Melbourne, joining several friends and former housemates who had already relocated. In Australia, she found herself among many other New Zealanders. Every Tuesday, she and her friends meet at a local pub for drinks and trivia, sometimes winning “pity points” from the quiz master, who is also a New Zealander.
While both Chong and Young say they plan to eventually return to New Zealand, Olsen is concerned that the traditional pattern of reverse migration may no longer hold true.
“In the past, New Zealanders moved abroad for a few years and returned home to be closer to family,” he said. “But if you don’t have a job or an affordable house, you start to question whether returning to New Zealand is the right decision, or if it’s better for mum and dad to move wherever you are.”
With increasing outflows and diminishing reasons to return, Olsen warns that New Zealand risks losing both population and innovation in the future.
“You either have leaving parties or farewell brunches every week,” Olsen said, describing the impact of the exodus in his own circles.
