-Sombir Kaushik
The preparations for the final phase of the Rajasthan Assembly elections are underway. Whether Congress, BJP, or other regional parties, all are putting their full strength into winning this election. Amidst this, prominent leaders from both Congress and BJP are facing a significant challenge. The biggest challenge is for the BJP, with over 30% of their seats held by rebel leaders, including 25 who can potentially sway the election in any direction. Many of them are former legislators, ministers, or current lawmakers who, having failed to secure a ticket in the Assembly elections, have rebelled and filed nominations as independent candidates.
One such loyalist of former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is Rajpal Singh Shekhawat, who has successfully convinced some rebel leaders to withdraw from the electoral battlefield. However, more than 25 rebels are still standing against the official BJP candidates. The Rajasthan Assembly elections this time present fierce competition on several seats, as independent candidates are contesting on 35 constituencies. Notably, both major parties have big names in the fray.
It is reported that Amit Shah has personally spoken to some rebel leaders to persuade them, but the impact seems limited. Among the rebels, names like Yunus Khan are notable, who is contesting against BJP candidate Jitendra Jodha in Didwana. Another case is of Narpat Singh Rajvi, the son-in-law of present MLA Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, who is contesting as an independent after being replaced by Lala Ram Birwa in Shahpura.
Despite concerted efforts to appease rebel leaders, 737 independent candidates are still in the race. While the number of independent candidates is lower compared to 2018, more are breaking away from Congress and BJP this time. Out of 135 seats in the state where the battle is primarily between BJP and Congress, triangular contests are expected on 35 seats, and nearly 20 seats are witnessing four-cornered battles. The tension has escalated for BJP and Congress, hoping to come to power.
In the 2018 Rajasthan Assembly elections, Congress had 15 rebel candidates, and BJP had around 14. Out of these, 11 rebel leaders who contested against Congress became MLAs, while no rebel leader from BJP managed to become an MLA.
In Rajasthan, BJP has more rebel candidates compared to Congress. There are five former ministers among the rebels breaking away from BJP. The increased number of rebels has heightened tension, especially in the 29 seats where the margin of victory or defeat was between 1000 and 5000 votes in the 2018 elections. Among these, BJP won on 13 seats, Congress on 9, others on 4, and 3 independent candidates emerged victorious.
The current scenario suggests that the outcome of the Rajasthan Assembly elections is highly uncertain, adding to the political complexity in the state.
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