The upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024 will be the major event in the country, expected to unfold around the first half of the next year, determine whether Narendra Modi secures a third term as Prime Minister or if the newly formed I.N.D.I.A alliance succeeds in forming its first government at the centre.
With the recent state election results in hand, Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) stands tall, having clinched victories in three significant North Indian states, albeit losing ground in the south, particularly in Telangana to the Congress. The party now aims to consolidate these gains and maintain its momentum for the approaching Lok Sabha elections. According to the ABP News and C-Voter survey, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would get around 295-335 seats, while the I.N.D.I.A alliance are projected to get 165-205 seats. It is a major boost for BJP as many surveys and opinion polls nationally and internationally have indicated the return of NDA in 2024, while acknowledging an anticipated increase in the seat count for the I.N.D.I.A alliance since the last general elections.
Since ascending to power in 2014, Narendra Modi has become the face of the NDA, enjoying widespread popularity among the masses. This popularity has translated into success in various state assembly elections, with the opposition struggling to present a formidable challenger for the position of Prime Minister. Recent global surveys, including the Morning Consult, highlight Modi’s robust approval rating, with 78% of Indians endorsing his performance. Modi’s net approval (calculated as the share of respondents who approve of his performance minus those who disapprove) is +60 and second to him on the list has a net rating of “only” +30.
BJP’s success is attributed to Modi’s ability to connect with diverse voter segments, which will prove to be a major factor for BJP in coming elections. The party has effectively positioned itself as a party representing the backward classes, something which was a congress stronghold, with Modi proudly identifying as such, and also a stalwart of Hindutva principles appealing to the elite. PM on many occasions has called himself a person from other backward class thus establishing a direct contact with the community and taking them into the NDA’s fold. According to data from Lokniti Programme for Comparative Democracy, the BJP gained 22% of the OBC vote in 2009 and 2014, aiming to maintain class balance for the 2024 general elections.
Key factors that will contribute to BJP’s electoral advantage in 2024 include the Ram Mandir issue in Ayodhya. The recent Supreme Court judgement on the Babri Masjid demolition case has provided the BJP an opportunity to claim credit for the construction of the Ram Mandir. The party plans to leverage this achievement in the coming elections, with a significant presence in Ayodhya on January 22,2024 for Ram Mandir inauguration, thus signalling the message that they have fulfilled their promise of building ram mandir before the 2024 elections. It will be a major part of the party’s national campaign.
Another factor that will work in favour of BJP is India’s foreign policy under PM Narendra Modi. Effectively utilizing the Pulwama attack in the 2019 elections, the BJP has projected strength and decisiveness on the international stage, boosting its domestic standing. According to polling results from 2019, the national crisis appeared to have helped the BJP gain ground and push aside more everyday concerns about the economy. Additionally, the general belief in the country is that Modi has boosted India’s standing overseas.
After the crushing defeat of I.N.D.I.A alliance in the state assembly elections, it faces the need to reconsider its policies before heading for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Congress leaders, including Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, are strategizing to revitalise their approach for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections by holding meetings with the party’s state leader.
The India Alliance holds certain strengths, such as its inclusive secular ideology, which may resonate with the diverse population of the country. Unemployment has been a major issue in the BJP led government since it came to power in 2014, which the alliance could exploit, given the upward trajectory in recent years. The latest CMIE (the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy) figures given for October 2023 show that the unemployment rate in the country stood at 10.05%; the rural unemployment rate was 10.82% while the urban unemployment rate was 8.44%.
Additionally, the alliance could rally against the BJP’s privatisation policies, emphasising concerns about job losses and the impact on public sector units. BJP since coming to power has privatised many central government establishments such as central public sector units which included Bharat Aluminium Company (BALCO), Hindustan Zinc (both to Sterlite Industries), Indian Petrochemicals Corporation Limited (to Reliance Industries) etc.
Last but not the least, one of the major factors on which India Alliance can fight the elections is their demand for Caste census survey at the national level. Various Congress leaders have opined that there should be a caste census for the development of various communities in the country, which BJP is opposed to. While one of the parties of the alliance Nitish Kumar led JDU held a caste census in Bihar. The India alliance can put forward the issue of caste based survey in the upcoming 2024 elections, making the people understand its advantages for the society.
