The Congress, facing its third consecutive defeat to the BJP in Haryana, found a glimmer of hope in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, where it partnered with the National Conference (NC) to secure a decisive mandate. However, a deeper analysis reveals that the victory in Jammu and Kashmir does little to alleviate the party’s overall struggles, particularly in the Jammu region, where leadership gaps, poor campaigning, and failure to consolidate Dalit votes left the Congress with little to celebrate.
In the first elections held in Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370, the Congress contested 32 seats, mostly in the Jammu region, compared to 51 by the NC. While the NC led the alliance, winning a significant portion of seats in the Kashmir Valley, the Congress managed only one seat in Jammu, with Iftikar Ahmed securing Rajouri by a narrow margin of 1,404 votes. In contrast, the Congress fared better in the Kashmir Valley, securing five seats. Among the victors were Pradesh Congress president Tariq Hameed Karra from Central Shalteng and AICC general secretary G A Mir from Dooru.
The poor performance in Jammu stands out, with senior Congress leaders, including two working presidents and several former ministers, losing to their BJP rivals. The party’s failure in Jammu is attributed to several factors, primarily a leadership vacuum created after the departure of senior leader and former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad. Unlike its alliance partner NC, which has strong leaders like Omar Abdullah and Farooq Abdullah, Congress lacked mass appeal in Jammu, further compounded by a weak ground-level organization compared to the BJP.
Just 29 days before the polls, the Congress replaced its Jammu and Kashmir president with Tariq Hamid Karra, a seasoned politician with limited appeal in the Jammu region. His inability to spearhead effective public outreach programs proved costly. Moreover, the erosion of Congress cadres over the years and the BJP’s campaign portraying Congress as an anti-Jammu party further hurt the party’s chances.
The Congress also struggled with ticket distribution in Jammu. High-profile candidates like former NSUI chief Neeraj Kundan and former BJP minister Lal Singh lost by significant margins. Furthermore, despite efforts to court the Dalit vote during the Lok Sabha elections, Congress failed to secure any of the seven Scheduled Caste reserved seats in Jammu, all of which were won by the BJP.
The party’s lack of energy in the Jammu campaign was noted by NC Vice President Omar Abdullah, who suggested that senior leaders like Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi should have campaigned in the region. Ultimately, the Congress’s performance in Jammu shows that despite an alliance victory in J&K, deep-rooted issues remain within the party’s leadership and strategy in key regions like Jammu.
