The forthcoming budget for the fiscal year 2024-25, set to be unveiled in Parliament on Tuesday, is anticipated to focus on ramping up capital expenditure and may introduce a more standardised approach to taxation, according to a recent report by Moody’s Analytics.
The report highlights that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which recently lost its absolute majority in the Lok Sabha, will be keen to restore confidence and public trust under the new coalition government. Aditi Raman, Associate Economist at Moody’s Analytics, noted that while the interim budget maintained the status quo on tax rates, any increase in government spending would likely necessitate a corresponding rise in tax revenue—through either direct or indirect means—to prevent a widening deficit.
Despite the political upheaval following the election, Moody’s Analytics does not foresee substantial shifts in India’s economic policy. The upcoming budget is expected to reinforce the objectives laid out in the pre-election budget, which focused on infrastructure development, support for the manufacturing sector, and maintaining fiscal discipline.
According to Moody’s Analytics, the budget is poised to have a significant impact on both business and consumer confidence. It is anticipated that the budget will maintain, or possibly increase, capital expenditure on infrastructure projects and funding for production-linked incentive schemes. Additionally, a more standardised approach to taxation is expected to be introduced, though the overall policy direction will likely remain consistent in light of the recent electoral outcomes.
India’s economic outlook for 2024 and 2025 remains robust, with the country projected to be one of the fastest-growing economies in the Asia-Pacific region. This growth is largely attributed to increased government spending, rather than relying on domestic consumption or exports—key growth drivers in other parts of the region.
In February, the interim Union Budget had already increased capital expenditure by 11.1% to approximately USD 134 billion, or 3.4% of GDP, for the fiscal year ending March 2025. This emphasis on capital expenditure has become a crucial element in driving India’s economic growth, particularly through investments in infrastructure.
