Following the tragic Pahalgam terror attack, India has taken a series of measures aimed at curbing Pakistan’s support for cross-border terrorism. These measures have included suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and now reducing the flow of water to Pakistan from various dams, including the Baglihar Dam. India’s latest move could have serious consequences for Pakistan’s water supply, especially with the possibility of further actions, including halting water flow from the Kishanganga Dam.
Water Flow Cut from Baglihar Dam
India has reportedly stopped the water flow through the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River. The dam, located in Jammu and Kashmir’s Ramban district, has been a source of contention between India and Pakistan in the past, with Pakistan seeking arbitration from the World Bank.
India’s National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) has started de-silting the Baglihar reservoir and lowered the sluice gates, which has resulted in a 90% reduction in the water flow downstream to Pakistan. According to officials, this process is necessary to increase the reservoir’s capacity for efficient power generation and prevent damage to turbines.
While this is a temporary measure, it has significant implications for Pakistan, which relies heavily on the water flowing from this river for irrigation. The move follows India’s broader strategy of suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, under which India controls the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Ravi, and Beas) and Pakistan controls the western rivers (Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus).
The Kishanganga Dam, located on the Jhelum River, could be next in line for similar treatment. India is reportedly planning to carry out maintenance work and de-silting operations at the Kishanganga Dam, potentially cutting off water flow downstream to Pakistan. The Kishanganga Dam project has been controversial, with Pakistan raising objections on the grounds that it violates the Indus Waters Treaty by diverting the water flow from the Jhelum River (also known as the Neelum River in Pakistan).
Pakistan claims that the dam, which generates hydropower, infringes upon the terms of the Indus Waters Treaty, which allows India to construct “run-of-the-river” hydropower plants without altering the river’s flow or depleting the water levels downstream. Pakistan has contended that Kishanganga Dam’s construction violates both conditions.
India’s Potential Move to the World Bank
With tensions rising, India may approach the World Bank to address the ongoing dispute related to the Kishanganga-Ratle hydel project. India is likely to request that the World Bank’s neutral expert pause proceedings related to the dispute, citing “changed circumstances” in the wake of the Pahalgam attack. The neutral expert-led dispute resolution process has already been underway since 2023 and has seen multiple meetings between India, Pakistan, and the World Bank.
India has been making progress on several hydropower projects, including Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Ratle, all located on the Chenab River and its tributaries. Pakistan has expressed strong opposition to the Ratle project, alleging it violates the Indus Waters Treaty, leading to inspections and ongoing disputes over these projects.
The Larger Impact on Pakistan
Pakistan’s water supply is heavily dependent on the Indus Waters Treaty, which accounts for approximately 80% of its irrigation needs. Any significant reduction in water flow from India, particularly from key dams like Baglihar and Kishanganga, could have dire consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture sector, which is crucial for its economy. With reports indicating that Pakistan’s agricultural industry contributes significantly to its GDP and employment, any disruption in water supply could potentially lead to economic instability.
The situation has prompted widespread concern in Pakistan, particularly among farmers who depend on the water for crop irrigation. As tensions between the two countries escalate, the potential for further water flow restrictions could worsen the already strained relations between India and Pakistan.
India’s decision to reduce water flow from the Baglihar Dam, along with the potential halt of water from the Kishanganga Dam, marks a significant shift in the water-sharing dynamics between the two countries. While India defends these actions as part of its broader strategy to punish Pakistan for supporting cross-border terrorism, the consequences for Pakistan’s agricultural and economic sectors could be severe. The international community, particularly the World Bank, may play a crucial role in resolving the ongoing disputes, but with the geopolitical situation growing more complex, the path ahead remains uncertain.
This article examines the evolving situation surrounding the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and its impact on the India-Pakistan relationship, shedding light on the water conflicts that could have far-reaching implications for both nations.
